The French government has failed to restore confidence in political institutions.

The French government has failed to restore confidence in political institutions.

The analysis below is drawn by Kevin Arceneaux (Director) and Anne Muxel (Deputy Director) at the Cevipof. It is based on the twelfth wave of the annual France Divided survey, carried out by Ipsos for “Le Monde”, the Fondation Jean Jaurès, the Cevipof and the Institut Montaigne.

Five months after the unexpected and controversial dissolution of the Assembée Nationale in June 2024 and a long summer marked by much prevarication on the part of political players, the already strong level of mistrust in institutions and their political representatives among the French population has become more pronounced. This is demonstrated by the France Divided survey, carried out by Ipsos for Le Monde, the Fondation Jean Jaurès, the Cevipof (Sciences Po’s Centre for Political Research) and the Institut Montaigne, from November 14th to 21st among a panel of 3,000 respondents.

In a climate dominated at best by uncertainty and at worst by discontent, three-quarters of respondents (74%) currently have no confidence in the French presidency, and more than eight out of ten (86%) have no confidence in French political parties. In the space of a year, this level of mistrust has risen by 7 and 3 points respectively. Furthermore, trust in the Assemblée Nationale has hugely decreased, with 74% of respondents having no trust in the institution. Added to this, the image of elected representatives has once again deteriorated. In 2023, 29% of French people expressed trust in their representatives, compared with just 22% today. This generalized mistrust affects all segments of the population and all electorates, with the exception of those close to the presidential party. However, even among these voters, only a minority of 47% express trust in their representatives.

While Michel Barnier's government has succeeded in reassuring French citizens by getting the country back on track politically, it has not managed to restore trust in political institutions, and particularly in the Assemblée Nationale. The government is currently struggling under pressure from such a situation. However, reactions to this political crisis cannot be described as unanimous. With rejection of the current French President continuing unabated, a majority of French people (52%) are in favour of Emmanuel Macron resigning. On the other hand, no doubt scalded by the disorders and dysfunctions caused by the June dissolution, only 31% favour another dissolution. A year ago, that figure stood at 38%.

In the context of such extensive mistrust, the various oppositions that could potentially constitute an alternative are perceived very differently. Some of these parties are deemed to be incapable of governing. Fewer than one in four French people (22% and 24% respectively) view La France Insoumise (LFI) and Les Ecologistes positively in this respect. Not only that but on this question, LFI has lost 6 points in one year, a loss that is undoubtedly linked to their strategy of constantly maintaining extreme tension led by its leaders within the Assemblée Nationale. Only 19% of French people approve of how the party’s deputies behave, and fully 63% consider the party to represent a danger for democracy.

By contrast, Les Républicains and the Parti Socialist - the traditional governing parties - are rated more highly in terms of their ability to govern (47% and 42% respectively), which places them ahead of the presidential party, Renaissance (37%). As for the Rassemblement National, 44% of French people consider the party to be capable of governing, a stable figure compared to 2023, and significantly higher than it was a decade ago (31% in 2015). While only a large third of French people (37%) approve of how the party’s elected representatives behave, this figure is nevertheless higher than for representatives from all other French political parties. Just one quarter (24%) feel the same way about Renaissance - the party that has been in power since 2017. Recent tensions between Renaissance deputies and the Barnier government may have had some impact on this low rating. 

The poisonous climate described above may well have consequences for the future of the democratic system. Although two-thirds of French people (65%) remain convinced that the system is irreplaceable, this proportion falls to 58% among younger generations, confirming the risk of a “democratic deconsolidation”, to use the expression of the German-American political scientist Yascha Mounk. In one year, the perception that democracy is not working well has risen by 9 points - from 69% to 78%.

The clarification sought by Emmanuel Macron has massively failed to materialize, which in turn has undeniably deepened the country's democratic crisis. Both Nouveau Front Populaire and Rassemblement National voters feel that their choices have not been respected. For the vast majority of French people, politicians no longer represent the general interest. The political manoeuvring that occurred this past summer did nothing to improve this perception. Once again, in the space of a year, the number of French people who believe that politicians act primarily in their own personal interests has risen by 8 points, reaching a peak of 83% today.

In this troubled political context, the French have come to realize that the bipolar world of yesteryear rooted in absolute majorities is fragile, and that the world of composite parliamentary coalitions is taking hold. A narrow majority (53%), especially on the left, considers that the right system is one in which the relative majority in the Assemblée allows for both checks and balances and the need for compromise. On the other hand, 47% of French citizens, especially on the right, remain attached to the virtues of an absolute majority.

Given the extreme fragility of relative majorities, nostalgia for a clear and effective absolute majority is making a comeback. In two years, opinion on the need for an absolute majority has risen by 17 points. This shows that the French are more divided than ever between a presidential and a parliamentarian interpretation of the institutions of the Fifth Republic. Such a divide at the very heart of the democratic crisis is eroding the country's political confidence.

Analysis published in Le Monde on December 2, 2024