COP28 in Dubai: Same but Different?

On 30 November, 2023, COP28 - the 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or the Convention) - opened in Dubai. Read the midway analysis of Carola Kloeck, researcher at Sciences Po's Center for International Studies (CERI).

These climate summits take place at the end of each year to discuss how to achieve the “ultimate goal” of the Rio Convention signed 41 years ago, that is, “stabilising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere” and preventing “dangerous” global warming. Despite this being the 28th such summit, we’re very far from this goal, with global emissions and global temperatures still on the rise.

However, this time, a few things are different: it is the largest COP so far, with over 70,000 participants. The event opened on a Thursday (rather than a Monday) and will work through two weekends - only the second Thursday (7 December) is designated as a “day of rest”. Finally, and for the first time in COP history, a decision was taken on day 1, at the formal opening of the event: the international community adopted a decision on the loss and damage fund, the historic outcome of last year’s COP in Sharm El-Sheikh. What is more, several countries - including the host country, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) - immediately pledged over 250 billion dollars to this newly established fund, even if needs are more in the trillions.

 "Developing" countries against "developed" countries.

With that historic opening, COP President Al-Jaber promised that this COP “would be different”. Yet since then, things have taken a rather usual turn - unfortunately. As usual, negotiators confront each other in countless “informal consultations” to take decisions on a wide variety of issues, from gender to carbon markets, from forests to finance.

The latter - finance - is particularly big on the agenda. This is again nothing unusual, quite to the contrary: financial support has been central to the climate negotiations from the start, and more so since Copenhagen. There, at COP15 in 2009, the negotiations agreed, for the first time, on a concrete number: developed country parties promised to “mobilise” $100 billion annually by 2020, for both adaptation and mitigation, with a balance between these two areas. Unfortunately, and as developing countries emphasise again and again, that goal has not yet been met, even if we believe the most generous estimates from donors, and most of the finance that has been mobilised supports mitigation rather than adaptation.

This unfulfilled finance pledge undermines trust in the negotiations. It also pits “developing” countries against “developed” countries, whereby the former category includes fairly rich and heavily polluting countries, such as the host, UAE, Saudi Arabia, or China. The category is a heritage of the early years of the negotiations, especially the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, but some countries - including the ones just mentioned - hold to this distinction to avoid any binding commitments to reduce their own emissions, or to contribute to financial support for much poorer and more vulnerable countries. 

Fossil fuels: phase down or phase out?

These countries are also generally opposed to “phasing down”, let alone “phasing out” fossil fuels, another hotly debated point at COP28. COP26, held in Glasgow in 2021, managed to agree on such language, even if severely watered down. There, the final outcome called on Parties to “accelerate efforts toward the phase down of unabated coal power and phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”.

Although COP28 President Al-Jaber promised that keeping the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 °C would be the summit’s “North Star” in his opening remarks, it is unclear to what extent he (and other major emitters) are willing to confirm, or even strengthen, such language. According to several media reports, Al-Jaber, who is normally CEO of the emirate oil company Adnoc, and the UAE in general, are rather investing in more fossil fuel projects around the globe. While having a fossil fuel representative preside over the COP is rather unusual (and has been heavily criticised), their presence at COP is - unfortunately - nothing new. Just as at previous COPs, NGOs counted thousands of fossil fuel lobbyists among the COP attendees. 

Can we believe in the promised “North Star”?

So far, COP28 is thus a very “normal” COP: old tension between “developing” and “developed” countries; pledges of financial support that may never materialise; polluters blocking much progress, watering down decisions and doing their best to avoid any emissions reductions.

Will COP28 thus be the “28th failure”, as German climate scientist Latif Mojib said? While the COP is unlikely to deliver the ambition we so urgently need, all hope is not (yet) lost. Indeed, the scandals around Al-Jaber and the UAE presidency may paradoxically pressure the host to work toward fossil fuel phase out  -  as this will become a clear measure of the success of this COP, and the only way to safeguard the 1.5 °C goal, after all, Al-Jaber’s “North Star”.