Kenya 2017: The Interim Elections?
Justin Willis - Durham University, Nic Cheeseman - University of Birmingham, Gabrielle Lynch - University of Warwick
The fear of violence hangs over elections in Kenya. The murders and population displacements that followed the disputed elections of 2007 still loom large in the minds of Kenyans, as well as internationally. In advance of the 2017 elections there have been multiple warnings from government agencies of the possibility of violence1. But the 2017 elections are unlikely to see conflict on the scale of 2007/8, though there has already been some lethal violence at a local level, and more is likely – particularly if there are significant problems with election processes. At the time of writing (early July), and with a month of campaigning still to go, the race is becoming increasingly close. Nevertheless, it currently seems likely that, unless one side conducts a very good or bad campaign, that incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta will be returned to power in the first round with a marginal lead, defeating Raila Odinga, who is the candidate for the coalition National Super Alliance (NASA).
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