CRIS & Axpo Scientific Seminar

Friday, September 22nd 2023, 11:30 am
Sciences Po, 1 place St-Thomas, room K008

Where Do Local Voting Patterns Mirror the National Vote?
A Micro-scale Study on Party Political Segregation in Germany

Ansgar Hudde
Lecturer, University of Cologne, Institute of Sociology and Social Psychology

This study analyses the spatial segregation in political voting behavior at the voting district (“neighborhood”) level in Germany. The degree of segregation versus integration is gauged by the extent to which local voting patterns diverge from overall, national-level voting patterns. If a neighborhood’s voting pattern resemble Germany's overall pattern, there is no segregation; conversely, if the neighborhood’s pattern strongly deviates from national trends, segregation is deemed high.

Small-scale political segregation matters because those residing in politically segregated areas are less likely to experience and “feel” the country’s general, political climate in their everyday life. This could lead to a sense of alienation from politics.

I analyze voting district-level results from the German federal elections from 1983 to 2021. With ~65,000 voting districts in 2021, this allows an extremely granular perspective.

Findings uncover two main patterns. Firstly, Eastern German neighborhoods typically exhibit higher levels of local segregation compared to those in Western Germany. Secondly, the relationship between segregation and the rural-urban continuum is U-shaped. Local voting patterns in rural areas and in large cities strongly deviate from national patterns. On the contrary, the voting patterns in mid-sized towns, ranging from 20,000 to 100,000 inhabitants, better represent Germany’s overall voting patterns. Further, the analyses identify additional patterns and deviations from these broader trends, such as differences between Bundesländer or outlying city-clusters like traditional university towns.

This study contributes to broader discussions on social cohesion, political polarization, and the urban-rural divide. Notably, it puts a spatial category at the center, which is often overlooked in urban-rural discussions: mid-sized towns.

Discussant: Edmond Préteceille (Sciences Po - CRIS).

Mandatory Registration. Thank You !  This event is a joint seminar CRIS & AxPo